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前途未卜的2024年

無論是對于歐盟，還是美國或者德國來說，2024年注定不會是一個(gè)平靜的年份。

首先，2024年將迎來眾多的重要選舉。無論是足以左右世界政治格局的美國總統(tǒng)選舉，還是僅僅具有有限政治意義的歐洲議會選舉，抑或令德國傳統(tǒng)主流政黨疲于應(yīng)對的東部聯(lián)邦州選舉，都將從政治、經(jīng)濟(jì)和社會層面上，或直接、或間接地影響俄烏沖突。雖然預(yù)測這些選舉的結(jié)果為時(shí)尚早，但是有一點(diǎn)基本可以明確，即歐洲將不得不繼續(xù)加大對烏克蘭的支持力度，以達(dá)到“俄羅斯不可以獲勝”的目的。否則，歐洲就必須調(diào)整自己的敘事，尋求沖突的政治解決方案。

其次，俄烏沖突在進(jìn)入第三年之際，事實(shí)已經(jīng)發(fā)展為類似一戰(zhàn)后期的陣地戰(zhàn)、物資戰(zhàn)和消耗戰(zhàn)。如果沒有新力量的加入（如美國在一戰(zhàn)后期加入?yún)f(xié)約國陣營），或者突破性軍事技術(shù)的出現(xiàn)（如剛剛被解職的前烏克蘭武裝部隊(duì)總司令扎盧日內(nèi)，在2023年反攻失利后接受英國《經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家》對話時(shí)所表達(dá)的觀點(diǎn)[12]），或者某個(gè)沖突方因內(nèi)部原因而崩潰或退出（如一戰(zhàn)后期的沙皇俄國），不能排除這場沖突將會長遠(yuǎn)被“凍結(jié)”，當(dāng)前的前線成為事實(shí)的占領(lǐng)分界線。

這種遠(yuǎn)景對于歐洲而言，無異于戰(zhàn)略噩夢，因?yàn)檫@意味著歐洲將不得不把相當(dāng)?shù)木唾Y源用于對俄羅斯展開軍事對峙，歐洲重回“冷戰(zhàn)2.0”時(shí)代。但是，這可能是一個(gè)沒有美國核保護(hù)傘的更冷的“冷戰(zhàn)”，歐洲所面臨的未來勢必具有更大的挑戰(zhàn)性和不確定性。

注釋：

[1]Reuters, EU agrees 50 bln euro Ukraine aid package - what are the reactions? 01.02.2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/eu-agrees-50-bln-euro-ukraine-aid-package-what-are-reactions-2024-02-01/.

[2]Ministry of Finance of Ukraine, Parliament of Ukraine adopts State Budget for 2024, 09.11.2023, https://www.kmu.gov.ua/en/news/verkhovna-rada-ukrainy-pryiniala-derzhbiudzhet-na-2024-rik.

[3]Ansa, Meloni, Orban have more talks before EU summit, 01.02.2024, https://www.ansa.it/english/news/politics/2024/02/01/meloni-orban-have-more-talks-before-eu-summit_ce5b89ab-d5f4-4f9d-be47-93a286705201.html; Andrew Rettman, Meloni-Orbán: the new EU 'power couple' but for how long? 02.02.2024, https://euobserver.com/world/158026.

[4]Transcript: The future of Europe, Gideon Rachman talks to Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform, 04.01.2024, https://www.ft.com/content/af446f94-c151-491c-b753-b4625df7a8bc.

[5]Government support to Ukraine: Military aid, in: Ch. Trebesch et al., Ukraine Support Tracker. A Database of Military, Financial and Humanitarian Aid to Ukraine, https://www.ifw-kiel.de/topics/war-against-ukraine/ukraine-support-tracker/.

[6]Patricia Zengerle, Richard Cowan and Makini Brice, US Senate advances $95 bln Ukraine, Israel aid bill after failed border deal, 09.02.2024, https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-vote-95-bln-ukraine-israel-aid-bill-after-failed-border-deal-2024-02-08/.

[7]Nicolas Camut/Sergey Goryashko, Putin tells Tucker Carlson Ukraine war can be “over in a few weeks” 09.02.2024, https://www.politico.eu/article/vladimir-putin-tucker-carlson-ukraine-war-elon-musk/.

[8]Stephanie Lai/Alicia Diaz, Trump Says War in Ukraine Must End Even as US Aid Advances, 11.02.2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-10/trump-says-ukraine-war-must-end-as-senate-advances-aid-package.

[9]Erik Wasson, Trump’s NATO Remark Sparks Political Storm in World Capitals, 11.02.2024, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-02-11/us-calls-trump-s-russia-remark-on-nato-allies-appalling. a

[10]Presse- und Informationsamt der Bundesregierung, Bilaterale Unterstützungsleistungen der Bundesregierung für die Ukraine und Menschen aus der Ukraine, Stand: 13.12.2023, https://www.bundesregierung.de/breg-de/schwerpunkte/krieg-in-der-ukraine/deutschland-hilft-der-ukraine-2160274.

[11]Olaf Scholz, A Russian Victory in Ukraine Would Imperil Us All, 07.02.2024, https://www.wsj.com/articles/a-russian-victory-in-ukraine-would-imperil-us-all-abee35e6.

[12]The White House, Remarks by President Biden and Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany Before Bilateral Meeting, 09.02.2024, https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/02/09/remarks-by-president-biden-and-chancellor-olaf-scholz-of-germany-before-bilateral-meeting/.

[13]Ukraine’s commander-in-chief on the breakthrough he needs to beat Russia, 01.11.2023, https://www.economist.com/europe/2023/11/01/ukraines-commander-in-chief-on-the-breakthrough-he-needs-to-beat-russia.

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